The head of one of America’s biggest defence companies has called on western governments to provide a “clear demand signal” if the industry is going to be able to provide the weapons needed for a prolonged conflict in Ukraine.
Kathy Warden, chief executive of Northrop Grumman, one of the top five “prime” contractors in the US, warned that weapons stockpiles had not been built to service a lengthy war.
“The most important thing now is to get a clear demand signal on what the sustained commitment is and the level of draw down from those stockpiles is going to be,” Warden said in an interview in London.
“I wouldn’t necessarily say that I’ve heard we’re running out, but if you do project forward that we’re going to want to sustain these levels of commitments for another couple of years — that’s certainly not what anyone had built stockpiles to accommodate,” she said.
Northrop Grumman, which is headquartered just outside Washington DC, makes the Bushmaster automatic cannons and midsized ammunition which have been supplied to Ukrainian forces from US government stockpiles. Its RQ-4 Global Hawk aircraft has been making regular surveillance flights over the Ukrainian border on behalf of the US air force and Nato allies.
The US, along with other Nato countries, has been supplying a range of weapons, including Raytheon-made Stinger anti-air missiles, to Ukrainian forces but concerns over stockpiles are rising as the conflict shows no signs of ending soon.
Global supply chain constraints mean the industry is also struggling to source critical components, with lead times in some cases having doubled or tripled, according to Warren.
Raytheon, another major defence contractor, has already signalled that it would take the company a “little bit of time” to make more Stingers. In May, the US placed an order for 1,300 of the Stingers, its first in 18 years.
The warning from Northrop Grumman was echoed by another prime contractor, which has started procuring components now in expectation there will be contracts for more weapons but with the risk that they are not ultimately used, according to one of its executives.
“We think in the long term, there’s going to be a requirement to replace Russian air combat capability — fixed wing and rotary wing aircraft” for the Ukrainians, the industry executive said.
Warden said that the defence industry’s dialogue with the Pentagon was “good” and that discussions were ongoing about “getting clarity on their plans”.
The country’s prime contractors have been meeting with the Pentagon several times a week to discuss what is being provided to Ukraine.
“They’ve been doing their best to pull industry together and share those plans, both at a more general level and specific, so that we can get ahead of contract and make investments and advance,” Warden added.
Northrop was prepared to make investments, including expanding factories “ahead of a contract”, said Warden, but cautioned that industry needed to “get an indication that if we build it, the demand will come”.
It can take years for a defence company to source parts, assemble, test, and deliver a system.
Northrop Grumman generates more than 80 per cent of its annual revenues from contracts with the US government, including key roles on programmes such as the F-35 fighter jet where it provides parts for the weapons system and avionics. It also led the industry team for Nasa’s James Webb space telescope.
Like many manufacturers, Northrop Grumman is wrestling with supply chain challenges, in particular shortages of electronic parts such as cables, connectors and power supplies. Lead times for such parts have “doubled or tripled,” said Warden.
The biggest constraint facing the industry is securing microprocessors, a predicament made worse because decades-old technology is still used in some systems.
In certain cases, companies are now guessing the quantity of parts they could need — both for potential use in Ukraine and elsewhere in the world — over the next couple of years and placing the orders now.
“That buys us two or three years of time to figure out how to change the design of a system to incorporate a new generation of electronic components,” said the industry executive.
