Hooper noted that Canada’s central bank seems to be doing better than others at slowing its economy. While July job losses were higher than expected, they were still modest. Average hourly wages also rose less in July than June. But, she anticipated that the Bank of Canada would continue to raise rates “despite its mega rate hike of 100 basis points just a few weeks ago”.
U.S.A.
In the U.S., Hooperp said, “it might not feel like a recession, but it feels like a slowdown. There is definitely real consumer pain. It has been reported that more Americans are skipping meals because of higher food prices. Households are racking up credit card debt, likely because they can’t afford living expenses. All that shouldn’t be a surprise given that real incomes have fallen significantly this year.”
While job numbers increased in July, she noted that many of those were part-time. While purchasing was expanding, she said, “the U.S. economy is most definitely not on fire.”
In fact, despite the Federal Reserve’s very rapid and substantial tightening, and indications it may have a 75 basis point hike in September, the U.S. economy seems to still be resilient, despite the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) contracting for two consecutive quarters. But, she noted that much of the Fed’s tightening has not yet turned up in the economic data, so it is only a matter of time before the signs of a slowdown show up in the job reports and elsewhere.
United Kingdom
The Bank of England has surprised some with its latest inflation forecasts, now anticipating that inflation will peak at 13.3% in October. She said it is expected to remain in the double-digits until the second half of next year, even if the United Kingdon economy is in recession.
