Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, recently published his latest memo titled ‘The Illusion of Knowledge’, where he not only questioned the value of macro forecasts, but also explained why creating profitable forecasts is so difficult. He makes it clear that forecasting mostly provides the illusion of knowledge, and argues that investors are better off accepting reality — that the macro future is largely unknowable — and focusing on what they can know.
I have compiled some notes and highlights on the memo.
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