In the latest wave of the study, the Institute found mortality rates decreased in 2020, the year the COVID-19 pandemic hit. While that might raise some eyebrows, Howard says it’s too soon to make any conclusions.
“For the most recently published year, we saw an overall mortality ratio of actual to expected of 90% for males, and the previous year was 91%. But the standard deviation and those mortality rates is about 2%, so that difference is well within the range where you really cannot draw any inferences,” he says. “For females, the two were essentially the same in the last two years, so the difference is not significant.”
There was limited overlap between the study period and the first year of the pandemic; Howard estimates only a quarter of the deaths analysed fell within the pandemic window. To fully capture and assess the impact of the pandemic, therefore, will require another snapshot, which he assumes will be available next year.
The data also showed an inverse relationship between policy size and the rate of mortality – the larger the policy size, the smaller the rate of mortality. That’s neither disturbing nor surprising, Howard says, as policy size has been long established as arguably the most significant factor not taken into account in mortality tables prepared by actuaries.
“People have spoken about this qualitatively for many years, and I’m encouraging actuaries to take that into account,” he says. “Look at it quantitatively. How much does it go down for a particular variation in size? The pattern has become quite regular … it’s getting to the point where people can now make inferences.”
