Second, the three banks had a large share of customers with deposits that surpassed federal insurance limits. These depositors are more likely to be cautious and ready to move their money, because they know that they could lose much of it if a bank goes under.
So when First Republic’s investment strategy began backfiring, depositors started to pull out their money in large numbers — a classic bank run. By last week, First Republic revealed that customers had withdrawn more than half of the bank’s deposits.
Last, the three banks’ fates were connected. “The failure of Silicon Valley Bank made Americans more concerned about the safety of their deposits,” my colleague Maureen Farrell, who covers finance, said. “And First Republic looked a lot like Silicon Valley Bank.” The threat of further contagion is what led regulators and the financial system to move to try to stabilize the situation.
The problems largely come down to mismanagement at the three banks, experts said. But regulators share some of the responsibility for failing to spot warnings and to act on them earlier. The Federal Reserve acknowledged as much last week, saying that regulatory changes and a “shift in culture” left regulators unprepared. The Fed also placed some of the blame on Congress, which in 2018 reduced the central bank’s oversight of so-called midsize banks like First Republic and Silicon Valley Bank. The Fed is now considering tougher rules.
Economic fallout
What happens next? Some analysts argue that the worst is over: Silicon Valley Bank, Signature and First Republic were all outliers, and their similarities made them unusually vulnerable to the current moment. So far, the government’s swift responses seem to have done a good job containing the potential contagion.
But things could get worse. Economists say that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes take time — potentially more than a year — to work through the economy. It was only last year that the Fed began dramatically raising rates. The three banks’ collapses, then, could be the beginning. As higher interest rates warp the economy, other parts of the financial system could fall under the strain, too.
Regardless of which scenario plays out, the three bank failures could lead to an economic slowdown. As other banks and investors worry that they could meet a similar fate as First Republic, they may act more cautiously. That caution could translate to less money going to businesses and consumers, meaning less economic activity and growth overall.
