Aviation enthusiasts know about those flying icons, starting with the Wright Brothers in 1903, followed by Charles Lindbergh’s first Atlantic crossing 24 years later. Within 30 years, the first satellite went into space; then, within another 12 years, America had reached the moon. It all shows how fast the aviation story has moved.
A Landmark Achievement
This week marks the first time a commercial plane crossed the Atlantic without using fossil fuels. This Tuesday, powered by sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), a plant sugars and waste fat-based fuel, the Virgin Atlantic flight reached New York John F. Kennedy Airport. The SAF has significantly lower carbon emissions than the standard kerosene used by 99% of American flights, emitting only 30% carbon. The flight signals a groundbreaking moment in aviation history, laying a tempting prize in the global initiative for decarbonization.
Not Enough Demand
Although SAF only makes up less than 1% of U.S. jet fuel, experts believe this moment is the first step toward a much bigger future. The International Energy Agency reports that demand is rising, although jet fuel emissions accounted for only 2% of carbon dioxide emissions worldwide in 2022. Andrew Chen of the clean-energy think tank, the Rocky Mountain Institute, told the Washington Post, “SAF is a major aspect of the transition for aviation [to zero carbon emissions], and it’s especially critical this decade,” Chen believes the biggest issue we face is not supplying enough SAF for the market.
Twice as Expensive
The Virgin Atlantic flight is no more than a publicity stunt aiming to raise awareness of SAF’s potential. However, the airline will not offer any SAF flights just yet; the implications of converting all flights to SAF are too plentiful at this stage. Cost is one major factor, with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reporting that SAF is more than twice as expensive as standard jet fuel. Consequently, SAF makes up only .1% of global aviation fuel.
A “Chicken and Egg” Problem
Furthermore, Chen explains how SAF suffers from a “chicken and egg” problem in that its price deters airlines. The only way to reduce the price is to ramp up production, but fuel refiners are reluctant to invest in refining facilities without initial demand. To encourage growth in the sector, the U.S. government’s Inflation Reduction Act will offer airlines tax credits for buying SAF. At the same time, the E.U. has gone a step further — mandating that all commercial airlines use at least 70% SAF in their airliners by 2050.
A Carbon Credit Solution?
Unsurprisingly, other organizations are involving themselves in the debate, with the World Economic Forum (WEF) pushing a carbon-credit initiative with airlines who participate. The target is for airlines to pass the credits onto customers to offset personal carbon emissions. Moreover, the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) published a paper that promotes a frequent flier levy (FFL) to generate revenues for decarbonization without burdening travelers with the costs.
An Iconic Memory
“Varying the levy based on flying frequency focuses the tax burden on wealthier frequent flyers and helps ensure that people with lower incomes are not priced out of air travel because of climate policy,” says the paper. This week’s SAF-powered flight will one day be an iconic memory in aviation’s timeline. Yet, it remains to be seen how prepared the aviation industry will be for the eventual transition to decarbonization. However, one thing is certain: the SAF story has only just begun.
