Just over a year ago
I
wrote about the tipping point in public support for
Brexit. The tipping point (in reality tipping points) is when trying
to make Brexit work becomes an electoral liability for Labour, and
they would gain votes in marginal seats if they instead talked about
rejoining the EU’s customs union or single market. Despite what
John
Curtice has recently said, I agree with
Chris Grey that the tipping point will not be before
the next election, but it will only be hastened if Labour win that
election.
This post asks the
same question for public views on immigration. They are obviously
linked, because attitudes to immigration will influence attitudes to
the Single Market. At the moment both the Conservatives and Labour
are saying they think net immigration numbers should come down
substantially, and a majority of the public still think immigration
levels should be reduced. However since around the Brexit referendum,
public opinion on immigration has shifted substantially, as this
chart from the Migration Observatory shows.
At first some
speculated that this shift was because Brexit voters assumed that
leaving the Single Market had solved their immigration numbers
problem, but that idea must have been well and truly shattered by the
recent figures for net immigration. To some extent more favourable
views about immigration may
reflect a backlash against populist rhetoric. However
in the UK I think instead the major reason for this shift is a
perception that immigration is no longer about more people looking
for a fixed number of jobs, but instead a realisation that
immigration is in large part about firms or organisations needing
additional labour.
In an important
sense Brexit has facilitated this change in perspective, both because
of the end of free movement and because of well publicised job
shortages in particular sectors. John Burn-Murdoch presents
evidence along these lines in the FT (see also
here), but you can also see this if people are asked
about immigration to particular jobs.
For most of these
occupations, more people wanted an increase than a decrease in
immigration, even though they would say they wanted less immigration
overall.
In this respect
immigration is a bit like taxes. If people are asked whether they
would like lower taxes they generally say yes, but if they are asked
whether they want lower taxes and lower spending on health, education
and welfare they generally say no. Equally if they are just asked
about immigration you are likely to get a different response than if
they are asked about immigrants to staff the NHS, for example,
particularly if they are aware of NHS staff shortages. Note that,
just with taxes, these are not two equally valid questions. With our
current immigration regime for sure (and in practice before that) a
question that links immigrants to the jobs that immigrants will do
makes much more sense. The gradual reduction in opposition to
immigration since Brexit noted above may be because some people are
making this connection without needing to be prompted.
If this analysis is
correct, will this trend towards more favourable views on immigration
continue? This may depend in part on the state of the UK labour
market. With a probable Labour government committed to increasing
growth, it seems likely that we will see a strong labour market for
at least some of Labour’s first term in office. This, together with
the impact of demographic change (younger people are more liberal),
suggests that the trend towards a more favourable view about
immigration will continue. Working in the opposite direction is that,
under a Labour government, the right wing press will go back to their
pre-Brexit ways with stories about ‘waves’ of immigrants who live
on benefits and steal jobs, and this in turn will influence the
broadcast media.
The tipping point
for Brexit is when a Labour government, whose politicians are not as constrained by ideology or their members/donors/newspaper owners,
find it is no longer to their electoral advantage to pretend to be
‘making Brexit work’. This happens the moment Labour would gain
more votes than they would lose in key marginals by, say, joining the
EU’s customs union or single market. In principle this shouldn’t
just depend on what voters tell pollsters about these options, but
also indirect effects like benefits to growth.
Is there a similar
tipping point for immigration? As with Brexit, that tipping point
would be well beyond half of the population taking a favourable view
of immigration. This is because our electoral FPTP system is biased
towards social conservatives, so taking a pro-immigration stance
could still harm Labour in marginal seats even if only a minority of
voters want less immigration.
However I’m not
sure Labour have the luxury of waiting for their pollsters to tell
them the tipping point on immigration has been reached. In this
respect immigration is not like Brexit. With Brexit Labour can move
gradually in the direction of greater cooperation with the EU from
day one, and judge the viability of key steps in reversing the Brexit
process. With immigration Labour will find it much more difficult to
talk about numbers being too high initially, and then switch to
stressing the benefits of immigration later on. In other words, with
Brexit the direction of travel is the same, whereas with immigration
it is not.
Labour’s discourse
on immigration today, in opposition, is almost too easy. With the
Conservative government simultaneously presiding over record
immigration, and its MPs demanding immigration be lower, Labour’s
work is being done for it. Those voters that want lower immigration
will think the Conservatives have failed them, while many others will
be rightly appalled at Conservative rhetoric and actions on asylum.
The situation will
become very different after Labour has been in power for a year or
two. The Conservative opposition (including its press) will be saying
immigration is too high, and now it will be a Labour government that
will be seen as responsible for immigration numbers.
Any government,
Labour or Conservative, faces a strong trade-off with immigration
policy. Actually restricting the ability of immigrants to fill jobs
in the UK hurts the economy, which is why successive governments (of
both parties) have been very reluctant to do this. Instead
governments tend to resort to different sorts of gimmicks or cruelty,
where Sunak’s
latest measures are a prime example of the latter.
However neither gimmicks or selective cruelty will have much impact
on immigration numbers, and so over years those who are concerned
about immigration numbers will turn on the government. A government
that talks the talk on reducing immigration but fails to bring
numbers down is storing up trouble for itself.
With popular
attitudes to immigration becoming more divided, an alternative
approach which Labour could follow may be politically wiser. Instead
of seeing immigration as a numbers problem, Labour could instead
focus on the role immigration plays in helping the economy. It could
actively oppose the Conservative narrative, rather than presenting a
slightly milder version of it. By presenting the benefits of
immigration in terms of additional output and better public services,
it could strengthen the growing numbers who are in favour of
immigration for specific professions. It might even make pollsters
stop asking questions about immigration in abstract, and instead link
immigration to the jobs immigrants do. [1]
Taking this approach
would mean no targets for immigration numbers, or even aspirations to
reduce numbers, as the media will treat these as targets. It can
involve improving pay and training to reduce the need for immigration
to particular sectors, but if that influences immigration numbers at
all it will take many years to do so. Labour could also talk about
the contribution overseas students make to universities, and how they
save taxpayers money. It could talk about the UK taking its fair
share of refugees, rather than trying to pretend it can just take a
selected few.
Is such a shift in
rhetoric the pipe dream it may seem today? The key electoral argument
for such a shift in approach from Labour is that the alternative of
doing what it and Conservative governments have done in the past does
not work. Pretending to be concerned about immigration, but not doing
anything significant to reduce numbers because of the impact this
will have on the economy, has played a key role in bringing down
three administrations. Immigration was the Conservatives main weapon
against New Labour before the Global Financial Crisis, it was key in
bringing about Brexit and the end of the Cameron administration, and
it is currently doing Sunak’s government no favours either.
With the public
shift in attitudes to immigration, the next Labour government may be
the point where being honest with the public about immigration and
the economy could pay electoral dividends. However to work
effectively that change has to begin the moment Keir Starmer walks
through the doors of No.10.
Have a great
Christmas, and let’s hope for a new start in 2024
[1] Such an approach
will not convince those who oppose immigration on principle because
of xenophobia or racism, but such voters will probably go to the
Conservatives or another right wing party anyway.
